With the agreement between Republicans and a handful of moderate Democrats, the longest federal government shutdown in US history is imminently coming to an end.
The answer to the question of who wins and who loses is simple: almost everyone lost, some more than others.
The 42,000 SNAP beneficiaries who stopped receiving full benefits, despite being one of the most vulnerable groups in the country, lost out.
Although the agreement guarantees SNAP payments until at least October 2026, some beneficiaries only received a partial payment in November.
Hundreds of thousands of federal workers who were furloughed without immediate pay also lost out. Although they will be paid retroactively, some were forced to resign to cover their housing and food expenses.
The US economy loses, having shrunk between $7 billion and $14 billion due to the government shutdown and the volatility in financial markets.
Those hoping for an extension of the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) subsidies, whose premiums are set to rise starting in 2026, also lose. Although the agreement stipulates a vote on the issue in December, there are no guarantees it will be supported by the Republican majority in the House of Representatives.
Democrats who relied on party discipline to force Republicans to extend healthcare subsidies also lose. While they succeeded in bringing the issue to the forefront of public attention, there is no guarantee their gamble will ultimately pay off.
More conservative Republicans who oppose increased public spending also lose, and they will now have to compromise if they want to reopen the government.
Although they avoided an automatic extension of Obamacare subsidies, they will have to accept increased spending in some departments. Among the few winners are thousands of federal workers who were laid off during the shutdown and who, under the agreement, must be rehired.
The federal government shutdown makes it clear that in contemporary American politics, there is no winning without a cost, and that these costs are not uniform. The “winners” are more survivors than classic victors.
But more importantly, institutional functioning is weakened when the political class cannot pass even the most basic elements of the country’s operation without drama or infighting, leaving citizens frustrated by the dysfunction in Washington.
