There is no doubt that Kamala Harris will win the majority of the Hispanic vote on November 5. All the Democratic presidential candidates without exception have done so at one time or another.
But the question that will probably only be cleared up on the day of the vote is what the margin of victory will be.
The outcome of the election could depend on the answer to that question, if we take into account the weight of Hispanic voters in decisive states such as Arizona and Nevada.
Currently, in almost all polls, Latino support for Harris is below 60%, that is, a smaller proportion than Joe Biden in 2020, Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Barack Obama in 2012.
Harris’s Latino problem is easy to describe, but difficult to solve: polls confirm that Latino voters have more confidence in Donald Trump to confront three of their main concerns, the economy, migration and crime.
These are issues that consistently appear not only in polls, but are also heard by activists who have been mobilizing the Hispanic vote in 2024. Yadira Sánchez of Poder Latinx tells us that issues such as the economy, the high costs of housing and childcare are of great concern to voters.
Among Latino voters, the segment with the greatest inclination to join Trump’s column is that of men.
An NBC/Telemundo survey found that a majority of Latino voters prefer Harris for her temperament, her competence, and for having the mental and physical health necessary to be president. But apparently in this election, these are not sufficient attributes.
Arturo Vargas, director of the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO) is clear that the idea that all Latinos are Democrats is nothing more than a “myth.”
“Latino voters vote according to the issues that matter most to them in each election. In some elections, it has been the Democratic candidates that they trust the most, in others it has been the Republican candidates. That is why we are always telling the parties: we must invest in the Latino vote… The Latino voter closely follows the Latino issues of each election and pays attention to what the candidates are saying,” he said in our television program Mano a Mano on La Red Hispana.
Perhaps because of this, Kamala Harris has hardened the tone and content of her message on migration. But the most recent poll by The New York Times/Sienna College shows that this last-minute turn does not seem to be moving the needle in favor of the vice president.
In other words, just 3 weeks before the presidential election, it may be too late for Kamala Harris to regain the same level of Latino support that Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden earned.
It is a major political lesson for the way of doing politics in the United States. The Latino voter must be taken seriously, all the time, when campaigning but also when governing. And it is not enough for them to whisper in our ear in English, Spanish or ‘Spanglish’.
They need to speak to us in the language of actions that resolve and pay attention to our needs and aspirations. Nothing more, nothing less.
